Why the 200-Week Moving Average Matters
In the history of Bitcoin market cycles, no metric has served as a more reliable macroeconomic floor than the **200-Week Moving Average (200-WMA)**.
Because traditional equity markets trade 252 days per year while Bitcoin trades 365 days, StrategyViewer normalizes the 200-WMA using **1,400 continuous calendar days** ($200 \times 7$ days).
1. The StrategyTracker 200-WMA Algorithm
StrategyViewer calculates the 200-WMA and momentum indicators matching the exact quantitative specification from StrategyTracker:
2. Valuation Heat Tiers
StrategyViewer categorizes both Bitcoin and Strategy stock into four standardized valuation tiers:
| Tier | Price-to-WMA Ratio | Historical Cycle Phase | Market Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Discount** | $< 1.00\times$ | Cycle Bear Bottom / Capitulation | Historic generational buying opportunity. |
| **Fair Value** | $1.00\times - 1.49\times$ | Accumulation & Early Bull | Baseline sustainable trend. |
| **Elevated** | $1.50\times - 2.49\times$ | Mid-Cycle Expansion | Strong momentum; prudent rebalancing range. |
| **Extreme** | $\ge 2.50\times$ | Euphoric Cycle Peak | Historical blow-off tops (2017, 2021). |
Current Market Readings (September 2026)
Strategic Implication
Bitcoin trades comfortably above its multi-year macro baseline with steady upward trajectory, while Strategy stock trades at a **20% discount to its own 4-year moving average floor** (0.80x ratio). For long-term capital allocators, this provides an exceptional quantitative risk/reward asymmetric setup.